Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#53 Arkansasat#2 Texas

Week 12·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#53 Arkansas
BOA rating 1581.6
Win probability
11.6%
Projected
14
#2 Texas
BOA rating 1879.1
BOA Pick
Win probability
88.4%
Projected
38
BOA Pick
Texas
Pick Confidence
88.4%
Very High
Projected Margin
Texas by 24.3
BOA Spread
Texas -24.3
Rating Edge
Texas +297.5

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Texas
Arkansas
1581.6
Texas
1879.1
Texas holds a 297.5-point rating edge.
Arkansas offense
Texas
Arkansas offense
48.1
Texas defense
98.8
Texas holds a 50.7-point rating edge.
Texas offense
Texas
Arkansas defense
40.7
Texas offense
85.0
Texas holds a 44.3-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Arkansas
Arkansas
99.3
Texas
98.5
Arkansas holds a 0.7-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Texas holds a 297.5-point rating edge.
2
Arkansas offense
Texas holds a 50.7-point rating edge.
3
Texas offense
Texas holds a 44.3-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffNov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM
SiteTexas home game
Week12
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Arkansas
Last 3 completed
1–2
WWeek 4 · Tulsa
34–6
LWeek 3 · Georgia
17–45
LWeek 2 · Utah
10–43
Texas
Last 3 completed
3–0
WWeek 4 · Tennessee
20–17
WWeek 3 · UTSA
30–6
WWeek 2 · Ohio State
24–23

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricArkansasTexas
National Rank#53#2
BOA Rating1581.61879.1
Offensive Rating48.185.0
Defensive Rating40.798.8
Schedule Strength99.398.5
Win Probability11.6%88.4%
Projected Points1438

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total52.0
Rating EdgeTexas +297.5
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_long_horizon
Open Texas Game Center →

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_texas_outlook_asof_w04_50b58419636e_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_texas_outlook_r1_postw04
Component Modelboa_absolute_power_texas_long_horizon_v1
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_texas_long_horizon_v1
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:55:13 PM
Published9/27/2026, 10:29:44 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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